EUR / USD
On Friday morning, the single European currency grew slightly in a negative light. The German industrial production showed a 1.6% decline in February against the expected growth of 0.2%. While the industrial production in Italy also showed growth below the forecast of 3.1% YoY vs. 5.1% YoY. Business activity of PMI in the retail sector of the euro area decreased from 52.3 to 50.1. But the employment data in the United States showed worse than expectations in the evening, which provoked the euro's growth by the end of the session by 39 points. The number of new jobs in the region is 103 thousand in March against the expectations of 188 thousand. The February indicator was revised to increase to 326 thousand from 313 thousand. The structure of employment is neutral, there were 22 thousand jobs were created in the manufacturing industry against the expectation of 20 thousand. But employment in construction and trade decreased. The share of the economically active population decreased from 63.0% to 62.9%, and the unemployment rate 4.1% with a 4.0% expectation. The average hourly wage rose by an expected 0.3% after 0.1% earlier. We believe that the unemployment rate at 4.1% will be delayed for a long time, the main problem is not this indicator but the share of the economically active population that stubbornly keeps at low levels. Hence, the Trump reforms are aimed at developing production and employment are controlled. The volume of consumer lending in February decreased from $ 15.6 billion to $ 10.6 billion. This data (virtually neutral, as with the unemployment rate of 4. 1% with expectations that non-farm payroll is high and excessively optimistic, even if we expect the indicators to show better than expected results) were superimposed on the fall of the stock market by 2.19% (S & P500) due to the development of the trade war between the US and China. Meanwhile, the euro is quite naturally grown.
Today at 7:00 PM London time, Germany's trade balance for February will come out with a forecast of 23.1 billion euros against 21.3 billion in January. The investor confidence index in the eurozone Sentix for April is expected to deteriorate from 24.0 to 21.2. According to the United States, the data is not available today. In the near future, we are waiting for the euro to trade in the range 1.2250-1.2320.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.