EUR / USD
On Thursday, the world markets were focused on the press conference of Mario Draghi after the decision of the ECB on monetary policy. What did the head of the ECB say, has the euro, the commodity and bond markets collapsed? The answer is nothing. Draghi did not mention anything in support of the euro, which really disappointed the "bullish" minded investors. Positive trends in the eurozone economy, but he talked about the general trend of global growth. In a straightforward translation, this means that successes of Europe directly depend on the growth of the American economy. As mentioned several times, we expect a neutral tone from Mario Draghi in the previous previous speeches on ECB meetings. Draghi sent messages to the Italian politicians about the irreversibility of the euro and focused on the dangerous consequences of trade wars. Also, a very important position of the monetary policy is the QE. In the information on the rates, a negative event for the euro can be seen and not for the entire financial market. The oil fell by 1.68%, gold by 0.38%, copper by 1.91%, meat futures lost from 0.77% to 1.52%, wheat -0.07%, sugar -3.33%. Yields on US 5-year government bonds fell from 2.648% to 2.620%. copper by 1.91%, meat futures lost from 0.77% to 1.52%, wheat -0.07%, sugar -3.33%. Yields on US 5-year government bonds fell from 2.648% to 2.620%. copper by 1.91%, meat futures lost from 0.77% to 1.52%, wheat -0.07%, sugar -3.33%. Yields on US 5-year government bonds fell from 2.648% to 2.620%.
In general, the markets reacted as they should have responded a week ago to those problems that had been developed, which was voiced out by Draghi yesterday. And the main point based on the forecast yesterday was the acceptance of the ECB to the conditions for a big game of the Fed for the dollar strengthening.
Today, macroeconomic expectations again are not in favor of the euro. Germany's trade balance for January is projected to decrease from 21.4 billion euros to 21.1 billion. German industrial production may show an increase of 0.6% after the previous fall of 0.6%, which in the final two months showed zero growth, and France's industrial production for February is projected to decrease by 0.2%. In the United States, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector in February is expected to be 200,000, which is similar in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.1% to 4.0%. The volume of commodity stocks at wholesale warehouses for January is expected to increase by 0.7%.
We are looking forward to further reduction in the euro in the range of 1.2210 / 30 until the level of 1.2090.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.