EUR/USD - Can The Rally Continue Post FOMC?

EUR/USD has managed to resume the upside movement after the minor temporary drop. The pair is trading at 1.1366 and most likely it will pressure the 1.1383 previous high, a valid breakout, another higher high, will validate further gains.

You should be careful today as the US will release the CPI data, the CPI, and the Core CPI indicators are expected to increase by 0.0% in May, a higher increase could support USD. Still, the FOMC represents the most important event of this week, I believe that only a hawkish FOMC Press Conference and FOMC Statement could save the dollar from the downside.

The Federal Funds Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.25%, we'll see how EUR/USD will react as the pair is trading into a resistance area. One thing is certain right now, EUR/USD is strongly bullish.

EUR/USD increases after a minor drop and after testing the R1 (1.1243) level, it has climbed above the upper median line (UML) of the orange descending pitchfork and most likely will try to pass above the R2 (1.1383) level.

As I've said in my previous analyses, EUR/USD should increase further if the price makes a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) and above the R2 (1.1383) level. It remains to see what will happen because another decrease after the US data and after the FOMC meeting, a false breakout above the upper median line (UML) could signal a bearish momentum.

The 1.1466 - 1.1494 area represents a major static resistance area, a failure to reach this zone or a false breakout above it will signal another leg lower. Still, another higher, a jump above 1.1383 could signal a breakout through the mentioned resistance area and the pair could approach and reach the next target at R3 (1.1622).

The outlook remains bullish after the failure to stay below the upper median line (UML). Actually, the price could still close below this dynamic resistance if the USDX rebounds and increases after the CPI data and after the FOMC meeting.

Another higher high, an increase above the 1.1383 level will validate a further increase at least until the 1.1466 - 1.1494 area. A valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) could announce a significant further increase, the R3 (1.1622) could be used as an upside target as well.

A further increase could be invalidated only if the price closes today in the red, below the upper median line (UML), and if it drops and stabilizes below the R1 (1.1243) again.