FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CAD

I currently observe that the USD/CAD pair is exhibiting a bullish formation, suggesting potential upward momentum if key support levels hold. I believe the critical level to watch is 1.4251; as long as the price remains above this threshold, I consider the bullish scenario viable, with a possible upward trajectory toward the resistance zone near 1.4364. I note that a successful test of this level could trigger profit-taking or reversal signals, potentially pushing the pair back down toward 1.4251 if buyers fail to sustain momentum. However, I also recognize the importance of today’s U.S. economic data, including GDP figures and unemployment claims, which could inject volatility into the market. From a technical standpoint, I see that the pair is trading below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 chart and beneath the 55-period moving average, reinforcing a bearish bias in the near term. I think the breakdown of the 1.4260 support level would accelerate selling pressure, likely driving the pair toward the psychological round number of 1.4200. Despite the current consolidation, I expect renewed downward momentum if bears breach these lower boundaries, as the broader four-hour trend remains firmly bearish.

I previously mentioned the formation of an internal bullish pattern within the daily chart, which ultimately failed to materialize, leading to a breakdown below recent lows. I saw this as a confirmation of increasing bearish sentiment, though the pair has since entered another phase of indecisive consolidation. I now observe a lack of clear directional conviction, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. I still hold my longer-term target at 1.4100, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart, which would require a 200-point drop from current levels. I believe a decisive break below the March 6 low of 1.4240 could catalyze a sustained downtrend, as it would invalidate recent consolidation and embolden sellers. Conversely, I acknowledge that a rebound above 1.4364 could temporarily revive bullish hopes, though the overarching technical structure favors bears. I will monitor price action closely around these key levels, as a failure to hold 1.4251 would likely confirm the bearish trajectory, while a rebound above 1.4300 might delay the downtrend. For now, I maintain a cautious stance, prioritizing patience until the market resolves its current ambiguity, either through a breakout or a rejection at critical technical thresholds.