FX.co ★ Bosmen | GBP/JPY

The chart shows GBP/JPY trading within a volatile range on the H1 timeframe. The price is currently fluctuating around the 195.97 level. Notably, the market exhibits both upward and downward swings, suggesting alternating periods of bullish and bearish momentum. The red moving average (likely a simple or exponential moving average) helps visualize the market trend. The price recently tested higher levels near 196.90 but faced a rejection, leading to a reversal. The presence of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern around the recent high indicates a bearish reversal. The "head" reaches around 198.70, with the "shoulders" forming near 196.30. This pattern suggests the price may experience further bearish pressure, targeting lower support zones. Support and Resistance Levels: 1. Immediate Support: Around the 195.50-195.70 zone. A break below this level could open the way toward the 194.50 region, as it served as a prior demand zone. 2. Immediate Resistance: Around 196.30. This level aligns with the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern. A sustained break above this resistance would invalidate the bearish setup, potentially leading to a retest of the 198.00 area. 3. Major Resistance: Near 198.70, which marked a recent swing high before the reversal. RSI Indicator Analysis: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) with a period of 14 currently reads 41.87, indicating a mildly bearish bias. The RSI is moving below the neutral 50 level, suggesting sellers are gaining control. However, it is still above the oversold threshold (30), meaning there is room for further downside. If the RSI drops below 30, it could signal oversold conditions and a possible price correction. Volume Analysis: The volume bars at the bottom of the chart reveal increasing activity during significant price moves. High volumes during recent bearish candles suggest strong selling pressure. Traders should monitor whether this volume sustains to confirm bearish momentum or diminishes, signaling a potential reversal. Moving Average as Dynamic Support/Resistance: The moving average (red line) acts as a dynamic resistance in the current market environment. The price recently failed to sustain above this average, reinforcing its role as a barrier to bullish moves. A crossover above the moving average could signal a change in trend and a potential upside opportunity. Conclusion: The GBP/JPY pair is at a critical juncture on the H1 timeframe. Key levels to watch include the 195.50 support and 196.30 resistance. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and the RSI’s position suggest that sellers currently dominate. However, a break above 196.30 could trigger bullish momentum, while a break below 195.50 might extend losses toward the 194.50 area. Traders should consider combining technical analysis with fundamental factors, such as economic data or central bank commentary, for more robust decision-making.