Citing informed sources, Bloomberg predicts that trade between the Middle East and China is expected to surpass trade with Western countries by 2027. Preliminary forecasts indicate this will happen by the middle of the second term of President-elect Donald Trump.
In 2023, trade between Gulf countries and China declined to $225 billion due to a significant drop in oil prices. However, experts anticipate a substantial increase in trade volumes by the end of 2024, with the figure reaching $325 billion by 2027. According to a report from Asia House, trade between the Gulf region and developing Asian economies could grow to $682 billion by 2030, provided that the current growth rates persist.
As for trade between the Gulf and the US, the UK, and Europe, it totaled $250 billion in 2023 but grew at a slower pace than trade with China, experts noted. "According to the study, we are now at the center of profound changes in the global landscape," CEO of Asia House Michael Lawrence noted. He pointed out that current conditions are fostering "new alliances—diplomatic, economic, and trade-related." These changes are happening as "Western economies become increasingly protectionist," the analyst added.
Currently, many Asian nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are building strong trade ties with China and other rapidly growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region (APAC). These countries are striving to attract more foreign investments and strengthen trade with the largest oil buyers.
However, there is a downside to this otherwise optimistic scenario. Asia House analysts warn that the growth of China’s trade with Gulf nations could be hampered by the tariff policies of US President-elect Donald Trump. At the same time, American tariffs on Chinese imports might stimulate more intense trade with Gulf states, though pressure from the new White House administration will likely bring its own challenges.