FX.co ★ Safinkhan | AUD/USD

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: The AUD/USD pair seems heavily influenced by global risk sentiment and economic data today. Key drivers include: U.S. Data: Later, we’re expecting U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI. If the data comes in strong, it could further strengthen the USD, adding pressure on the Aussie. China’s Role: With China being Australia’s largest trading partner, their economic performance is always a big factor. Weak industrial and retail data from earlier this week hasn’t helped the Aussie’s momentum. RBA Outlook: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance recently hasn’t provided much support. With inflation moderating, further rate hikes seem less likely, which keeps the AUD under pressure. Technical Analysis: Current Levels: Right now, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6600, struggling to gain traction above this psychological barrier. Support and Resistance: Key support sits at 0.6575, with a more substantial floor at 0.6540. On the upside, resistance is at 0.6630 and then 0.6670. Moving Averages: The pair stays below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signalling bearish momentum. Indicators: RSI is sitting near 40, indicating bearish bias but not oversold yet. The MACD is still below the signal line, confirming downside pressure. Trendline: The downward trendline from October highs continues to act as a barrier for any recovery attempts.

For now, AUD/USD’s direction hinges on U.S. data and overall market sentiment. A break below 0.6575 could lead to more selling while holding above 0.6630 might invite some buyers back. Personally, I’m keeping a close eye on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and updates from China for clearer signals. With so much uncertainty, cautious trading seems the best approach.