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Technical analysis 29 April 2025 EUR/USD H-4 It was not announced there that they were close to signing, but here it is hardly worth believing what is written in the media. Trump has already come out three times and said that negotiations with China are underway and are about to begin, and as a result, Tessent comes out and completely negates Trump's entire message with his opposite statements against China, and the market began to shake up again. In fact, the same thing happened today. The Minister of Finance came out and said that no negotiations between the US and China were conducted, are not being conducted, and will not be conducted in the near future, and the US does not plan to reduce duties against China, but they are obliged to reduce their rates against the US. This is what caused the growth of EUR/USD in America, and now we are seeing a test of resistance at 1.1425, and a rebound from this level will give a signal to sell to 1.1370, but here, most likely, it is still worth waiting for how trading goes in Asia and the opening of Europe. China may react sharply to Tessenta, although it may simply ignore this message, since, in fact, apart from words, no actions were taken. The growth of EUR/USD above 1.1425 will send the pair further to 1.1475. I do not see the growth to the maximum yet, but the pound has already updated the maximum. A sales scenario is also possible in the event of liquidity withdrawal above 1.1440 with the subsequent return of the price below this resistance zone. In this case, the nearest target for decline will be 1.1350, and with a further decline, 1.1310.

The current market situation is quite intriguing, and I believe it’s essential to break it down carefully. On Monday, I observed that the session closed with a bullish candle, which initially suggested some upward momentum. However, when I shifted my focus to the four-hour chart, I noticed that the price had tested the upper boundary of the channel at 1.1573 and was rejected, leading to a bounce. This wasn’t the first time the price attempted to break through this level, but what caught my attention was its ability to breach the moving average line temporarily. Unfortunately, the bullish momentum didn’t hold, and the price eventually turned south, heading toward the profitable buy zone between 1.1261 and 1.1199. Now, I’m closely watching as the price tests the moving average from below, attempting to bounce off it. If this rebound succeeds, I anticipate a decline back toward the buy zone, which could present a strategic entry point. The fact that the moving average line is currently red signals to me that sellers are in control, outweighing buyers. This makes the overall picture quite complex, and I’m cautious about drawing definitive conclusions just yet

Adding to the complexity, I’m also considering the broader context of the price action. Yesterday’s test of the moving average from the bottom up was a critical moment, and now I’m waiting to see if the price can sustain a rebound. If it fails, I expect further downside movement, reinforcing the sellers’ dominance. On the other hand, if the price manages to hold above the moving average, I’ll be looking for signs of a potential trend reversal. Right now, the red moving average line is a clear indicator of bearish pressure, and I’m mindful of how this could influence future price movements. The zone between 1.1261 and 1.1199 remains a key area of interest for me, as it has historically acted as a support level. I’m prepared to monitor the price action closely, as the next few candlesticks could provide more clarity. Until then, I’m staying patient, recognizing that the market is in a delicate balance, and any misstep in interpretation could lead to costly decisions. The current setup is undeniably complicated, but I’m confident that careful analysis will reveal the next actionable opportunity.