FX.co ★ Russian Ruble Strengthens on News of Black Sea Ceasefire Agreement

The Russian ruble experienced a slight increase to approximately 84.2 against the US dollar as markets evaluated the progress of ongoing ceasefire discussions involving Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. Recent developments saw the US mediating individual accords with both Ukraine and Russia to halt hostilities in the Black Sea region and target energy infrastructure, though specifics and commencement dates are still pending confirmation. Furthermore, the US committed to aiding in the removal of global sanctions impacting Russian agricultural and fertilizer trade. The Kremlin acknowledged the agreement but noted it is contingent upon lifting sanctions imposed on banks and companies engaged in agricultural commerce. Year-to-date in 2025, the ruble has appreciated by about 25% against the dollar, reaching a high of 81.7 in February, a level not seen since June 2023, largely due to optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Moreover, elevated borrowing costs have provided additional support to the currency. In March, as anticipated, the Central Bank of Russia retained its policy interest rate at 21%, and adopted a more favorable outlook regarding disinflation trends.