FX.co ★ 比特币：「钻石手」不卖，「弱手」也能坚持不懈

On-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders are not too concerned about the ongoing market FUD, as their exchange flows remain very low.

The inflow of long-term Bitcoin holders has remained muted recently. According to network analytics company Glassnode, long-term holders have only been placing about 0.004% of their supply on exchanges lately.

"Long-term holders" (LTH) here refer to investors who have held their coins for at least 155 days. LTHs make up one of the two main segments that the Bitcoin market is usually divided into. The second group is "short-term holders" (STH), who acquired their BTC less than 155 days ago.

Statistically, LTHs are less likely to participate in selling, while STHs are weaker hands who can easily sell. This resilience of LTHs has earned them the nickname "diamond hands".

“钻石手”在恐惧中不出售

最近，由于美国证券交易委员会（SEC）对加密货币交易所Binance和Coinbase施加的监管压力，比特币市场被FUD所笼罩。在这种市场不确定性的情况下，不排除STH会进行抛售。可以预期LTH将采取更强硬的立场。

为了了解LTH如何应对该行业的当前情况，Glassnode研究了该组别的交易所流入数据，投资者通常在想要出售时将他们的硬币转移到交易所。数据显示，这些投资者在过去几天内参与了小规模的销售。目前，LTH存入的存款相当于其供应量的0.004%。

该分析公司还确定了这些投资者参与的以前的大规模抛售，以了解它们与当前观察到的值的关系。

目前的销售潮远远不及过去几年中出现的潮流规模。例如，FTX崩盘后的折扣销售和2023年3月的复苏行情，导致LTH至少将其供应的10倍投入其中。

与以前的FUD事件不同，比如LUNA崩盘或3AC破产，比特币LTH似乎并不特别担心当前行业中的问题。

短期持有者也表现不错

类似于由SEC引起的持续FUD的时期，检验短期持有者的稳定性-这个群体通常是由于价格下跌而首先离开市场。然而，最新数据表明，比特币短期持有者的流动反映出他们对留在市场并获利的强烈兴趣。

CryptoQuant analysts point out that despite the weak dynamics of the main cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is still in the range of $25,000-30,000 and the possibility of its trajectory growth is not yet exhausted.

"According to the SOPR metric for short-term holders, when it stays near unity for several months in a row and the value of coins held by holders rises above this level, it is a sign of strong interest in staying in the market and making a profit. The price cycles of 2015 and 2019 are good examples of this."

Comparing the current cycle with 2019, the analyst noted that the profitability of long-term and short-term holders was not high enough to cause strong selling pressure. This trend essentially suggests that Bitcoin may grow with a new wave of demand.

The second half of the year may be challenging for cryptocurrency

Bloomberg Intelligence的高级宏观策略师迈克·麦克劳恩在今年上半年比特币表现稳定后提出了对其的预测。他认为，尽管市场最近表现强劲，但主要加密货币处于技术上的弱势位置。据该策略师称，今年比特币超过30,000美元的上涨可以解释为在宏观熊市中的过度反弹。在他的评论中，他说：

“比特币可以在52周移动平均线形成的下降趋势范围内恢复，该趋势已经开始下降。加密货币从2022年的大约15,000美元反弹，到今年4月的大约30,000美元。”

然而，该专家强调，美联储的货币政策可能会对未来主要加密货币的价格产生重大影响。他指出：

“稳定的流动性爆发模式和耗尽后的下跌模式是纠正我们对比特币下行趋势偏见的因素。尽管银行业繁荣，但美联储两次加息表明了央行的决心。铜价和加密货币价格的下跌似乎反映了对美联储行动的关注，而不是稳定的股票市场。”

本月早些时候，麦克格隆推测，下半年可能对加密资产和股票不利，因为他认为美联储仍在加息的道路上。