FX.co ★ JPMorgan revises US recession outlook, predicting “soft landing”

JPMorgan has updated its economic forecast for the United States, now predicting a 55% probability of a “soft landing” rather than a recession in the first half of 2024. This optimistic shift marks a significant adjustment from their previous forecast, which had only a 30% likelihood of avoiding a downturn. Business insiders report that this positive change in outlook was influenced by a series of unexpectedly favorable economic data. Trade balances, supply indicators in the US, and global financial conditions have shown improvement, contributing to a more favorable economic projection. Previously, JPMorgan had expressed concerns about high interest rates impacting the private sector's growth, increasing the cost of debt servicing, and generally dampening economic activity. However, Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan, has now adopted a more optimistic stance. He suggests that the Federal Reserve might consider holding off on rate cuts to preserve the delicate balance of confidence currently supporting the economy. The latest data, which has been more positive than anticipated, paints a picture of an economy that could maintain a “soft landing” at least through the end of the next year. This revised outlook suggests that JPMorgan's analysts see a stabilizing economy ahead.