FX.co ★ IEA warns of global oil glut of 1 million bpd in 2025

The crude oil market could be heading for a glut. According to Bloomberg, citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global petroleum market is projected to face a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025. The primary reason is sluggish demand in China, the world's largest oil consumer.

The IEA notes that oil consumption in China has been declining for six months straight. This figure is expected to grow by only 10% in 2024 compared to 2023. Besides, if OPEC and its allies level up their production rates in the near future, the global surplus could expand further.

Amid prolonged waning demand from China, experts have recorded an 11% drop in oil prices since the beginning of October 2024. On November 14, Brent crude futures traded slightly above $72 per barrel. A day earlier, oil prices hit late-October lows, sliding to $70 per barrel.

Market participants are anticipating the growth of oil production in the US, the IEA points out. According to analysts' forecasts, global oil consumption will increase by 920,000 barrels per day by the end of this year, averaging 102.8 million barrels per day. Crude oil demand is expected to grow by another 990,000 barrels per day in 2025.

However, currently, demand has slightly cooled. In this context, the IEA predicts large supplies from producers in the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana, with production expected to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 and 2025. As a result, global oil supplies are likely to exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year, even if OPEC+ refrains from pumping up production.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent major producers aim to resume normal production that has been suspended since 2022. However, external circumstances have delayed this decision. Nowadays, the cartel and its allies are on the way to a cycle of small monthly increases of 180,000 barrels per day, starting from January 2025. The final decision on this matter will be made at the upcoming meeting scheduled for December 1, 2024.