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FX.co ★ Traders economic calendar. International economic events

It is impossible to get a clear and balanced picture of the market situation and make a profitable deal without a special tool of fundamental analysis, the Economic Calendar. This is a schedule of significant releases of key economic indicators, events, and news. Every investor needs to keep track of important macroeconomic data, announcements from central banks’ officials, speeches of political leaders, and other events in the financial world. The Economic Calendar indicates the time of data release, its importance, and ability to affect the exchange rates.
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Thursday, 12 March, 2026
19:00
CPI (Feb) (m/m)
2.9%
2.7%
2.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ARS, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ARS.

19:00
National CPI (Feb) (m/m)
-
-
2.90%

The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical economic indicator released by Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). The CPI measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, typical of urban households.

This includes categories like food, housing, apparel, transportation, electronics, medical care, and other goods and services. A rise in the index signifies inflation, depicting that consumers need to spend more to maintain the same standard of living. Conversely, a drop indicates deflation.

Economists, central banks, and investors closely monitor CPI since it provides insight into the country's inflationary or deflationary pressures, a key market mover. This data, especially if it differs from market expectations, can cause substantial shifts in financial markets.

19:30
CPI (Feb) (y/y)
-
32.7%
32.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ARS, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ARS.

20:30
Fed's Balance Sheet
-
-
6,629B

The Fed balance sheet is a statement listing the assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve System. Details of the Fed's balance sheet are disclosed by the Fed in a weekly report called "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances."

20:30
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
-
-
3.014T

Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks is the amount of money that depository institutions maintain in their accounts at their regional Federal Reserve Banks.

21:30
Business NZ PMI (Feb)
-
-
55.2

The Business NZ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. It gives an indication about the health of the manufacturing section and production growth in New Zealand.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

21:45
External Migration & Visitors (Jan)
-
-
7.00%

Tourism is a service based industry that applies to people o!G s traveling and staying in a place that is not their usual environment and for the purpose of leisure, not business. It includes such elements as accommodation, food and beverages, souvenirs, tours, transport but also relaxation, adventure, culture. Tourism can substantially impact economic development of both host countries and home countries of tourists. However, consequences can be both positive and negative. Benefits from tourism industry concern: income from tourists expenditures as well as imports and exports of goods and services, contributions to government revenues from taxes put on tourism businesses, stimulation of infrastructure investment and new employment opportunities. However, a country or region should not be dependent only on this one industry. The seasonal character of tourism causes problems such as insecurity of seasonal workers that concern.

21:45
Permanent/Long-Term Migration (Jan)
-
-
2,870

Permanent and long-term arrivals include overseas migrants who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more.

21:45
Visitor Arrivals (m/m)
-
-
1.7%

Visitor Arrivals measures the change in the number of short-term overseas visitors to New Zealand. Tourism plays an important role in the economy with approximately 10% of the population employed by the tourism industry.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

23:00
Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
-
4.25%
4.25%

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru's Monetary Policy Committee decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the PEN, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the PEN.

23:30
Trade Balance (Jan)
-
-
3,999M

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PEN , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PEN.

Friday, 13 March, 2026
02:00
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Mar) (m/m)
-
-
45.89

The Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) is a key economic calendar event for South Korea that gauges the overall confidence and financial outlook of consumers in the country. The index is based on a comprehensive survey conducted by the global research firm Ipsos and data provider Thomson Reuters, which polls thousands of individuals on various aspects of personal financial situations and general economic conditions.

A higher PCSI score indicates increased consumer optimism, which often translates into stronger spending habits and healthier economic growth. Conversely, a lower score suggests more pessimism among consumers, potentially leading to reduced spending and slower economic growth. Investors and policymakers keep a close eye on the PCSI, as changes in consumer sentiment can have significant impacts on the performance of the national economy.

As a forward-looking indicator, the Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI offers valuable insights into the future trajectory of the South Korean economy, providing valuable information for traders, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions.

02:00
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Mar) (m/m)
-
-
56.37

The Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) is a monthly economic indicator that measures the overall confidence and sentiment of Indian consumers. The index is based on a survey conducted by research firm IPSOS in collaboration with Thomson Reuters, one of the world's leading providers of economic data and insights.

The PCSI is calculated using a sample of Indian consumers, who are asked about their perceptions and expectations concerning the economy, jobs, personal finances, and their willingness to make major purchases. The survey results are used to calculate the index value, with a higher score indicating stronger consumer confidence and a more optimistic outlook for the economy.

Investors, economists, and policymakers closely monitor the PCSI as it provides valuable insights into India's consumer market, predicting consumer behavior, and its potential impact on the country's economic growth. Changes in the PCSI can affect financial markets, currency exchange rates, and impact decisions on monetary and fiscal policies.

02:00
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Mar) (m/m)
-
-
52.46

The Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) is a monthly economic calendar event that provides valuable insight into consumer confidence and sentiment in Australia. This important indicator is closely monitored by market analysts, economists, and policymakers, as it has the potential to significantly impact the nation's economy.

Consisting of a comprehensive survey conducted by global research firm IPSOS in partnership with Thomson Reuters, the PCSI measures consumers' current and future outlooks on various economic factors. These include personal finances, employment prospects, investment climate, and overall economic conditions. A higher-than-expected result implies consumer optimism and increased spending, which can positively affect the growth of the Australian economy. Conversely, a lower-than-expected result signifies consumer pessimism, potentially leading to reduced spending and slower economic growth.

As a valuable tool for both short-term traders and long-term investors, the Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI is released in the middle of each month, and its results can significantly impact the Australian stock market, currency pair values (such as AUD/USD), and other local financial instruments. Therefore, keeping a close eye on this economic calendar event is crucial for those seeking to assess the health of the Australian economy and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

02:00
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Mar)
-
-
41.33

The Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI, also known as the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index, is a monthly economic calendar event for Japan that measures the overall consumer sentiment in the country. It is an important and widely-watched indicator of consumer confidence, as it offers insights into the Japanese public's perception of the economy and their financial situation.

This index is calculated using a combination of data collected from numerous sources, including surveys and questionnaires conducted by Thomson Reuters and the global research firm IPSOS. These surveys ask a representative sample of the Japanese population about their views on various aspects of the economy, such as personal finance, job security, government policy, and overall economic conditions.

A higher than expected reading of the Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI generally indicates increased optimism among consumers, potentially signaling increased spending and a stronger economy. Conversely, a lower than expected reading may be a sign of decreased consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.

Investors and analysts closely monitor the Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI, as it provides valuable information about the country's economic health and can influence government policy as well as financial markets, including currency values and the stock market. Positive consumer sentiment can lead to increased consumer spending, which boosts overall economic growth, while negative sentiment can dampen spending and slow the economy.

02:00
China Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Mar)
-
-
72.82

The Thomson Reuters Ipsos Monthly Global Primary Consumer Sentiment Index is a composite index of 11 questions that run monthly via online polls in the countries surveyed. The data output is based on the views of a fresh, randomly selected representative sample each month of primary consumers aged 18-64 in the US and Canada and aged 16-62 in other countries. Primary consumers are a comparable, standardized and weighted group in each country based on a minimum level of education and income. The eleven questions capture consumer views on: 1. Current overall economic situation in country 2. Current state of economy in local area 3. Expectations of local economy in six months 4. Current personal financial situation rating 5. Expectations of personal financial situation in six months 6. Comfort in making major purchases 7. Comfort in making other household purchases 8. Confidence about job security 9. Confidence in ability to invest in the future 10. Experience with job loss as a result of economic conditions 11. Expectations of job loss as a result of economic conditions

02:30
Unemployment Rate (4 quarter)
-
2.0%
2.0%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the SGD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the SGD.

03:00
M3 Money Supply (Jan)
-
-
6,087.0B

M3 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.

03:00
M2 Money supply (Jan)
-
-
7.30%

Monetary aggregates, known also as "money supply", is the quantity of currency available within the economy to purchase goods and services. Depending on the degree of liquidity chosen to define an asset as money, various monetary aggregates are distinguished: M0, M1, M2, M3, M4, etc. Not all of them are used by every country. Note that methodology of calculating money supply varies between countries. M2 is a monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits and small certificates of deposit. Excess money supply growth potentially can cause inflation and generate fears that the government may tighten money growth by allowing the interest rates to rise which in turn, lowers future prices. M2 = Currency in circulation + demand deposits (private sector) + time and savings deposits (private sector).

03:45
Consumer Confidence (Feb)
-
-
52.8

Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the THB , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the THB.

06:00
CPI (Feb) (m/m)
-
-
-0.20%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

06:00
Finnish CPI (Feb) (y/y)
-
-
-0.2%

Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed bask of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys. From 1995 the weight structure is based on the European National Accounting System Classification of Individual Consumtion by Purpose (COICOP).The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change over a specified period of time in the general level of prices of goods and services that a given population acquires, uses or pays for consumption. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

07:00
Construction Output (Jan) (m/m)
-
0.0%
-0.5%

The Construction Output is an economic calendar event that tracks the change in the total value of construction work completed within the United Kingdom. This includes both private and public sectors and covers new building activities, renovations, and repair work. The data is released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on a monthly basis.

A high construction output figure indicates growth in the construction sector, which contributes significantly to the overall health of the UK economy. An increase in construction output can be seen as a sign of economic expansion, as it suggests that companies are investing in infrastructure and housing development. Conversely, a decline in construction output can signal economic slowdown or contraction.

Investors, analysts, and policy makers closely monitor construction output data as it can impact interest rates, currency valuation, and investment decisions. A consistently positive trend in construction output may lead to higher interest rates, as it could indicate inflationary pressures, whereas a negative trend could result in lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic growth.

07:00
U.K. Construction Output (Jan) (y/y)
-
-0.1%
-0.3%

The U.K. Construction Output is an economic calendar event that reflects the volume of construction work completed in the United Kingdom within a given time period. This important indicator allows analysts, investors, and policymakers to gauge the health and growth of the nation's construction industry, which is a vital component of the broader economy.

Construction output consists of both public and private sector projects, encompassing residential, commercial, and infrastructure developments. An increase in construction output signifies a growing demand for goods and services, leading to higher employment rates and overall economic growth. Conversely, a decline in output might signal weakened demand, slower economic growth, or underutilized resources within the industry.

The report is closely monitored by market participants, as a robust construction sector often translates into increased business investments and consumer spending. Its data plays a crucial role in shaping monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England and offers valuable insights for investors seeking opportunities within the U.K. market.

07:00
GDP (Jan) (m/m)
-
0.2%
0.1%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00
GDP (Jan) (y/y)
-
0.9%
0.7%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

07:00
Industrial Production (Jan) (m/m)
-
0.3%
-0.9%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00
Industrial Production (Jan) (y/y)
-
0.6%
0.5%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00
Manufacturing Production (Jan) (m/m)
-
0.2%
-0.5%

Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00
Manufacturing Production (Jan) (y/y)
-
1.5%
0.5%

The Manufacturing Production index measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by U.K.'s manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production. A rise in manufacturing production signify increasing economic growth therefore a higher than expected figure will be bullish for the GBP and a lower than expected should be bearish.

07:00
Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan)
-
0.2%
0.1%

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Rolling three-month data are calculated by comparing growth in a three-month period with growth in the previous three-month period, for example, growth in June to August compared with the previous March to May.

07:00
Trade Balance (Jan)
-
-22.20B
-22.72B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00
Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan)
-
-
-10.99B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods sand services, from and to Non-Eu countries, over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00
Unemployment Rate (Feb)
-
-
8.6%

The definition for an unemployed person is: Persons (16-65 years) who were available for work (except for temporary illness) but did not work during the survey week, and who made specific efforts to find a job within the previous 4 weeks by going to an employment agency, by applying directly to an employer, by answering a job ad, or being on a union or professional register. The percentage number is calculated unemployed / (employed + unemployed). A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the SEK , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the SEK.

07:00
German WPI (Feb) (m/m)
-
0.3%
0.9%

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by wholesalers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

07:00
German WPI (Feb) (y/y)
-
-
1.2%

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by wholesalers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

07:00
End Year CPI Forecast (Mar)
-
-
24.11%

The End Year Consumer Price Index (CPI) Forecast is an important economic indicator for Turkey. It provides an estimation of the inflation rate by the end of a given year. The inflation rate is an essential component of a country's economy, representing the overall change in the price level of goods and services over a specific period, typically a year.

Investors, policymakers, and businesses pay close attention to the End Year CPI Forecast as it helps them make informed decisions regarding their investment strategies, monetary policies, and pricing adjustments to better cope with potential changes in the inflation rate. Higher inflation rates may lead to increased interest rates and reduced consumer spending, affecting the overall economic growth. Conversely, lower inflation rates can stimulate economic growth through lower interest rates and increased consumption.

Overall, the End Year CPI Forecast serves as a crucial economic tool for Turkey, allowing various stakeholders to anticipate and react to changes in the inflation rate and make necessary adjustments for a stable and growing economy.

07:00
Industrial Production (Jan) (y/y)
-
-
1.6%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00
CPI (Feb) (y/y)
-
9.4%
9.6%

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period. The consumer price index is used as a measurement of and is a key economic figure. Likely impact: 1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise. 2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates. 3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.

07:00
Industrial Production (Jan) (m/m)
-
-
0.8%

The industrial production index is calculated by using the selective method comprising a representative sample of products and services. The evolution of industrial production is established based on the physical volume index, which is calculated from the series of representative products at the level of each industrial branch, and also on the basis of the weight of these products, calculated according to value added, using the Laspeyres-type formula. The industrial production index (IPI) is a volume index of Laspeyres type and measures the evolution results of industrial activities from one period to another.

07:00
Index of Services
-
0.3%
0.0%

The Index of Services measures the change in the total Gross Added Value (GAV) of the private and government services sector. GVA is the difference between the value of a service provided and the value of the goods and services used to provide the service.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:30
Industrial Output (Jan) (y/y)
-
-2.5%
-2.5%

The Hungarian Industrial Output is a useful indicator of the economy because it is more current compared to the GNP and reported every month. Total Industrial Production includes Mining,Manufacturing, and Energy but it excludes transportation, services, and agriculture which is included in GNP. Industrial Production is generally more volatile than GNP. Changes in the volume of the physical output of the nation's factories, mineand utilities are measured by the index of industrial production. The figure is calculated as a weighted aggregate of goods and reported in headlines as a percent change from previous months. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the HUF , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the HUF.

07:30
Currency Swaps (USD)
-
-
22.3B

Net Forward Position= Bank of Thailand s forward obligations to buy (+) or sell;(-) foreign currency against Thai Baht A swap that involves the exchange of principal and interest in one currency for the same in another currency. It is considered to be a foreign exchange transaction and is not required by law to be shown on a company's balance sheet.

07:30
Foreign Reserves (USD)
-
-
293.9B

Total of a country's gold holdings and convertible foreign currencies held in its central bank. Usually includes foreign currencies themselves, other assets denominated in foreign currencies, and particular amount of special drawing rights (SDRs). A foreign exchange reserve is a useful precaution for countries exposed to financial crises. It can be used for the purpose of intervening in the exchange market to influence or peg the exchange rate. International reserves = Gold Foreign exchange Special Drawing Rights Reserve position in the IMF.

07:45
French CPI NSA (Feb) (m/m)
-
-
0.70%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:45
French CPI NSA (Feb) (y/y)
-
-
1.00%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:45
French CPI (Feb) (m/m)
-
0.7%
-0.3%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

07:45
French CPI (Feb) (y/y)
-
1.0%
0.3%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

07:45
French HICP (Feb) (m/m)
-
0.4%
0.8%

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, is the same as CPI, but with a joint basket of products for all Eurozone member countries. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

07:45
French HICP (Feb) (y/y)
-
1.1%
0.4%

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, is the same as CPI, but with a joint basket of products for all Eurozone member countries. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.